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Maize - phenological stages under climate change

Description

The timing of key phenological stages of maize is determined by temperature. Layers of information include timing of sowing and harvest dates, length of cycle (days) and number of successful harvests in 20 years. Three maize hybrid types have been modelled: this dataset is the short cycle. Ensemble information across six Global Climate Models (GCMs) are provided for:

  • the historical baseline (1981-2000),
  • mid-century (2041-2060) and
  • end of century (2081-2100)
for four Representive Concentration Pathways (RCP) of future anthropogenic emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5).

 

Date: December 2023 Version: v1

Owner: NIWA, MWLR, PFR

Contact: Dr Edmar Teixeira, PFR

 

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Dataset attributes

Spatial extent New Zealand
Spatial resolution 5km climate grid
Temporal extent Three time periods: historical baseline (1981-2000), mid-century (2031-2050) and end of century (2081-2100)
Temporal resolution
Evaluation method (Validation) None
Evaluation result (Numeric)
Evaluation result (Categorical)
Uncertainty method Not supplied but an estimate of uncertainty can be generated by assessing the variability of estimates between years and GCMs
Uncertainty data format (Numeric)
Uncertainty data format (Categorical)

 

Methodology

Key phenological stages are related to cumulative temperature thresholds, including sowing and harvest date, for three maize phenotypes. In some locations the crops cannot be sown, or are sown but do not reach harvest (not warm enough). This can be seen in the number of successful harvest years out of 20.

The phenology estimates were averaged across the six Global Climate Models and the relevant time period (historical baseline (1986-2005), mid-century (2041-2060) and end of century (2081-2100)) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of future anthropogenic emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5).

 

Fitness for purpose / limitations

This table indicates whether the dataset is suitable for different types of questions at different scales.

Note: Users should carefully consider their purpose as this dataset may not be suitable.

Operational Absolute Relative Screening/scoping
Block/farm No No No Maybe
Multi-farms(5+) Maybe Maybe Maybe Yes
Catchment Yes Yes Yes Yes
National/regional Yes Yes Yes Yes
Caveat(s) The climate information is too coarse for use at finer scales.

Data and Resources